As a rookie, Montgomery was a disappointment, averaging just 10.7 fantasy points per game. Though volume is important in fantasy football, Harris will likely struggle behind his offensive line and may not garner an elite share of red zone touches. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. His value is trending in the wrong direction. Robinsons workload will dramatically decrease this season, and drafters arent taking that into account as much as they should. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. Brown never stopped earning playing time for the Rams despite the team investing early draft capital at the position. The addition of James Conner, plus the knowledge that Kyler Murray could steal goal-line carries, also adds a bit of skepticism. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. So as we can see, Bettis had about the 9th best run blocking offensive line in the NFL during his career. 5. Malcolm Brown is one of the least-sexy names in fantasy football, but NFL teams sure seem to love him. Most Overrated QB: Tom Brady 1 of 6 Then as soon as they go south, we pile on like kids in a mosh pit? Barkley is a workhorse. The fact is, he never . Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. Drew Davenport: Gordon hasn't been a special player for a while now, and at times last year looked completely ineffective. Most overrated players in Madden 21 J.J. Watt, defensive end, Houston Texans. most overrated running backs of all time. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club. That looks like a mistake from where the situation sits now. First, Johnson turns 30 in December, and considering all the injuries he's dealt with in his NFL career, it's hard to see him aging well. Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. Tony Dorsett 12. J.K. McKissic, Washington | Consensus Rankings RB47 | Consensus Projections RB45. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. Chad Parsons: McKissic is priced reasonably with an implied drop in targets. Jordan McNamara: Javonte Williams got a major bump in value in the offseason when Melvin Gordon III was a free agent. By the end of the year, that may change, but Etienne will be a change-of-pace and gadget player who might earn flex value this year until then. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. They will be pass-dominant inside the five-yard line, which doesn't help Edwards-Helaire's fantasy stock. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. This is more important for Barkley than most backs because he relies on his immense gifts more than most backs. Ben Cummins: I dont want much to do with the Texans at all this season. Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB10 | Consensus Projections RB11. You are better off investing in a more consistent player for your RB2 when you get to the late second or early third round of drafts. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB19. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Brady is known for being the only quarterback in history to win 7 Super Bowls, and is often considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. Phil Alexander: Beware of drafting running backs based solely on their perceived opportunity. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. Single It also must be remembered his journey through the NFL before that. But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. Jacobs is not the alpha; he's one of many in the Vegas backfield. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season. His ADP has been climbing recently, and while his price says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, he's still being overvalued at his current price. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was used as a space player last year, and his lack of a red-zone presence placed a ceiling on his fantasy value. Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Ben Cummins: Im a big fan of Antonio Gibsons talent, but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. Williams is extremely talented, but as of now, it looks like this will be a split backfield. Martin is one of the best running backs of all time because he blended good ability with outstanding durability and versatility. They might be lucky to win three games, which means limited touchdown potential for Johnson and a shortage of run-friendly game scripts. . Jamal Lewis rushed for nearly 3,400 yards in the first two seasons back from his ACL tear. And in fact, some managers are drafting him to be in their fantasy starting lineups in Week 1. Ryan Hester: He might not keep his job, his offense probably wont be great, hes not explosive, and hes on the wrong side of the running back career arc. Ryan Hester: This isnt a knock on Harris, whose athletic profile and projected workload are things fantasy players dream of. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his climbing ADP. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. By the season's end, Mike Davis will be a case of "I knew it," but the guy who pushes him down or out is pure guesswork at this stage. Etienne's selection early in the late first signals he should have an immediate opportunity, especially with a new coaching staff in place. Chad Parsons: Cohen is coming off an injury, and Damien Williams is a notable veteran addition to the depth chart. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. If he is still on the opening day roster, Gordon's workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Fred Taylor Ben Cummins: The Raiders offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his current ADP of RB13 and 20th overall. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. But career stats shouldnt have much emphasis on them for that reason. USA Today named the most overrated player on every NFL team in 2022 and for the Cleveland Browns, Jadeveon Clowney was given this unwanted distinction. Jonathan Morris: As soon as Josh McDaniels came into the picture as the new head coach of the Raiders, my valuation of Jacobs immediately went down. Matt Waldman: Many of my peers at Footballguys are worshippers of draft capital as a predictor of talent. The additions of Mike Boone and Javonte Williams haven't done anything to dispel this idea. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Yeah, us, too. 1. Never a good idea. Investing in Sanders as your RB2 is likely to leave you feeling disappointed. Anthony Amico: The story with Gibson is somewhat similar to that of Jacobs but with a proof of concept already complete. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). Barkley could hit on pure talent and above-average recuperative ability, but everything else is going against him to return value on his lofty ADP. Victoria Geary: Sanders has talent and breakaway ability, but he may not garner a large enough workload to be worth his ADP this season. More of the stats of an average RB, which Laurence Maroney and Rashard Mendenhall are. The Top Ten. Chad Parsons: The price has vaulted up on Javonte Williams after a quality rookie season. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . So should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? His current draft price is almost his upside. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. He doesnt have that much of a skill set difference with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed either. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB21. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB10. Andy Hicks: When looking at the Falcons backfield, it is clear there is no one currently there to challenge Mike Davis to start the season. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27. Eric Dickerson 8. He's never carried the ball more than 132 times in a season. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. Thats the first thing we notice. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. Links to similar discussions on other positions: 12 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends28 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 10 Quarterbacks12 Tight Ends23 Wide Receivers25 Running Backs, 9 Quarterbacks11 Tight Ends15 Wide Receivers13 Running Backs. And free-agent acquisitions Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead didnt even play. Jacobs could easily wind up as a player who does a lot of work between the 20s with no meaningful fantasy production. I was reading an article the other day about the greatest power backs of all time and Jerome Bettis was third on the list (right behind Jim Brown and Larry Csonka and right ahead of Earl Campbell). Even if he isn't named the Saints' starting quarterback, Hill's continued presence in the red zone and at the goal-line infringes on Kamara's touchdown opportunity. He also has a new coaching staff, a new play-caller, and a new system to learn. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Henderson was arguably the best blocking fullback during the late 90s, paving the way for nine 1,000 yard rushers in his 12 years in Green Bay. I would probably rank him around 43. That has shown to be largely untrue so far in camp as Williams and Gordon have been splitting first-team reps nearly 50-50 until Gordon has missed time with a foot injury. He's as gifted a receiver as he is a runner, which allows him to have huge games regardless of game script. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. Gibson was even in the game after Robinson was out. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. There isnt much to like here. In 2020, James Conner ranked 36th and Benny Snell ranked 54th in expected yards-per-carry out of 55 qualifiers, a sign of a weak offensive line and scheme. Tevin Coleman is one of those veteran thorns in the sides of young backs to garner touches. He finally received the workhorse role fantasy players have craved. But after he sat a game due to injury, the Bears' lead runner came out hot after their bye, and he finished at a torrid pace of 25.7 points per game as the overall RB1 from Weeks 12 to 17. J.D. Ryan Hester: Short of Taysom Hill (if he wins the job), this whole offense is an avoid for fantasy football right now. If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. That is not the stat line of an elite RB at all. At present, I'm avoiding Gaskin because I do not trust the role, especially ahead of projected starters like Mike Davis and other players with higher upside like Travis Etienne. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Sep 20, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina . The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. by | Jul 2, 2022 | beaches near airports florida | legends untold sewers | Jul 2, 2022 | beaches near airports florida | legends untold sewers As well as he played in the postseason, Fournette is still an inefficient committee back ticketed to share work with Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard. Combine a true committee situation with a quarterback who racks up 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, and you have a ceiling on Dobbins that won't be unlocked without a rash of injuries. Sigmund Bloom: Brian Robinson Jr had an excellent preseason debut, while Antonio Gibson fumbled *again*, so this is trending in the wrong direction for Gibson's 2022 redraft value. James is the more physically gifted player. That enthusiasm should be tempered because Canada was the offensive coordinator fired by LSU before LSU hired Joe Brady, who oversaw Joe Burrow's historic season. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB22 | Consensus Projections RB24. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. I am a heretic in that regard. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Ryan Hester: If Aaron Rodgers leaves Green Bay, no Green Bay players will see their output exceed their price tag. Wait until next year. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. . The Eagles also resigned Jordan Howard and added Kerryon Johnson to the backfield, exhibiting their lack of trust in Sanders as an every-down back. His retirement all but guarantees some drop-off in Kamara's receiving numbers regardless of whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is named the Saints starting quarterback. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). Phil Alexander: Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. I understand the upside, but I don't want to take a huge miss if I'm drafting in Week 1. The Ravens have had the #1 rushing offense in the league for the last two years straight but have finished 31st overall in total running back targets in that same time span. His best year came in 2011 when he ran for 10 touchdowns and 1,047 yards, but other than that he didn't do much else. But I do not believe The Bus should be in the list of the top 40 RBs of all time. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. Add in the fact that offense is unlikely to provide as many goal-line chances as the other high-end RB1s, and Kamara has plenty of factors going against him. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look . Gordon is a massive red flag at his ADP. And while Johnson sits atop the Houston depth chart, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram II, and perhaps Rex Burkhead will factor in as well. The only reason Johnson had fantasy value last year was a superhuman effort from Deshaun Watson to move the offense and produce points. His average DVOA of 0.085% would rank him 31st in the NFL in 2009, right behind Rashard Mendenhall. With McKissic back taking over passing down duties and Brian Robinson Jr possibly taking over red zone opportunities, Gibson is being overvalued in fantasy drafts. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. Kudos to James Robinson.
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